Background
Height: 6’7”
Wingspan: 6’10”
Weight: 208 lbs
Age: 19
Position: SG/SF
Team: Oregon
Stats
Overview
Troy Brown is a wing I’m down on compared to consensus. He has good feel for the game on both ends, but not much else. He’s a very poor shooter off the bounce and on catch and shot opportunities. He also lacks the athleticism to beat his man off the dribble and finish at the rim. Defensively he makes some nice anticipatory reads, but he’ll gamble and compromise the defense more than you’d like to see. He has solid size for a wing, but also lacks the strength and lateral speed to be a big plus on the defensive end. He’s projected to go somewhere in the late teens/early 20s right now. I wouldn’t draft him in the 1st round and probably not till the middle of the 2nd round at least.
Interior Scoring/Ball Handling
Off the bounce Brown has a good sense for attacking closeouts when he has an advantage. His first step isn’t very good, but he’s very decisive with his movement when a defender is closing late to him. His problem is that he’s not a good enough shooter to force hard closeouts, that’ll really hurt his driving ability. In a straight up iso situation he doesn’t have the shiftiness or burst to take his man to the rim. His ball handling is good, but he can’t really get anywhere with it because of his poor burst. His midrange game is also nonexistent (35% from MR on the season), so teams will play him with more of a cushion, preventing him from turning the corner. At the rim he shot 63%, but he doesn’t look athletic jumping off one or two feet. His contortion ability is nice, but I wasn’t impressed with his touch on the finishes I saw either. I predict his FG% at the rim will be much worse in the pros. Even in transition he looked awkward running the floor and lacked the athleticism to play above the rim. His physical tools for a wing are fine, but he’ll need to add more strength to better absorb contact.
Passing
His passing is unquestionably his best offensive skill (3.2 Apg). Brown plays with his head up, constantly surveying the floor even when he’s dribbling. He has the size to see passing angles that many PGs can’t see. His timing and court sense open up shots for his teammates with on time and on target passes. He also pushes well in transition with kick ahead passes that create scoring opportunities. He’s very cognizant of the weakside defender’s positioning and will pass for corner threes when that player cheats in too far. I still have a tough time seeing him being able to operate in PnR however. Teams will go under every PnR or just switch. He can’t beat either of those coverages. He’s not dynamic enough to be a primary or secondary creator even in my opinion.
Shooting
Brown’s shooting numbers aren’t pretty: 29% from 3pt range (on 3 attempts a game), 35% from MR, and 74% from the FT line. Defenses made a concerted effort to dare him to shoot in many instances, and he did not make them pay. He doesn’t get much elevation on his jumper and has a slower release. His balance is poor, and he doesn’t have the smoothest motion. His shot looked much more uncomfortable whenever he had to shoot on the move.
Shooting off the dribble isn’t much better for Troy. He dribbled out of some wide open 3s into some pullup 2s. He stepback moves didn’t give him the separation in iso situations that you’d like to see, and his slower release make it harder for his shot to be very versatile. His shooting troubles off the dribble only exacerbate his issues turning the corner against defenders.
Rebounding
I was impressed with Brown’s feel for hitting the offensive glass (6% OReb%). He doesn’t get up vertically or boxout for position, but he regularly went to the glass and found crevices that led to better positioning for boards. In the NBA he might not be allowed the freedom to crash the glass as much, but he’s shown a proclivity for getting loose balls that a team would be wise to leverage if they’re going to play him.
The defensive glass was more of a struggle for Brown. He’s well below average for NBA athleticism on the wing, doesn’t have the strength to boxout for position, and isn’t very physical. His 18% DReb% was fine but not great. He might be able to play more PF if he was better in this area, but his lack of strength is a real problem.
On Ball Defense
Brown was a mixed bag guarding the ball. He doesn’t have great lateral speed and doesn’t contain dribble penetration very well. He gets knocked back by strong wings and doesn’t have the speed to stay with PGs or SGs consistently. He’s by no means a sieve, and Oregon usually put him on the best opposing offensive player, but it’s hard for me to say he’ll be above average in the NBA at this skill. His hands stripping ballhandlers are pretty good (1.6 Spg), but he will reach some. His stance is too upright, and his size/length combo is just average for a wing.
Off Ball Defense
Off ball was more of a mixed bag for Brown. He played passing lanes well but took some gambles. There were some rotations that he was late on making, and he doesn’t have the athletic profile to make up ground if he’s even a half step away from where he should be. He got beat on several cuts because he was ball watching, and for someone with generally good feel there were a surprising number of times he lost his man. He can wreak some havoc in passing lanes with his activity, but he’ll need a coach that can help him find a good balance between aggressive playmaking and staying solid.
Takeaway
Troy Brown is a guy that I don’t think will stick long term in the NBA. The team that takes him will have to be confident that they can develop him into a more capable shooter. He’ll need a system that allows him to take some risks on both ends with the way he crashes the glass and plays the passing lanes. I have a tough time buying into a wing who isn’t a very good defender, can’t shoot, can’t beat his man off the dribble, and probably won’t finish at the rim well. He’s still a freshman and there’s always a chance he develops a higher skill level and more refined instincts, but I haven’t seen enough yet to use a 1st round pick on him. I hope he has a long, successful career but I don’t see it.
BBall Vibes and Stuff 